The Aussie market looks set to open flat later this morning, after Wall Street fell overnight amid a big drop in oil prices.

The September SPI futures contract is currently pointing to a four point fall, to 5608, on the open, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see the physical market move lower throughout the session – due in large part to the fall in oil.

In local economic news today, the Reserve Bank of Australia holds its monthly board meeting and announces its interest rate decision. It also releases its index of commodity prices for July.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases retail trade, and international trade in goods and services figures, both for June. The ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence survey, the Roy Morgan State of the Nation Report, and the Dun and Bradstreet business expectations survey, are also expected.

The CAPA Corporate Travel & Airport Innovation Summit continues in Sydney, while the Diggers and Dealers mining conference is on in Kalgoorlie.

In equities news, Suncorp full is expected to post full year results.

Key numbers:

– SPI futures down 2pts to 5611

– AUD at 72.76 US cents, 90.36 Japanese yen, 66.48 Euro cents and 46.75 British pence

– On Wall St, S&P 500 -0.3%, Dow -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.3%

– In Europe, Stoxx 50 +1%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC 0.8%, DAX +1.2%

– Spot gold down $US9.42 or 0.9% to $US1086.38 an ounce

– Iron ore jumps 4.2% to $US55.63 per ton

– Brent crude down $US2.62 or 5% to $US49.59 a barrel

What’s on today:

Australia international trade balance, retail sales, Reserve Bank of Australia board meeting on rates announcement; US factory orders.

“We expect the [Reserve Bank of Australia] board will decide to keep rates on hold,” says Bill Evans, Westpac’s chief economist. “Markets are in full agreement with this view with only a negligible probability of a rate cut being priced in. It is a different story for November with market pricing oscillating between 60 per cent and 80 per cent probability of a cut by then.

Stocks in focus:

Citi currently has “neutral” ratings across the banking sector. Major bank order of preference - NAB, ANZ, CBA & WBC. For the regional banks we favour BOQ over BEN.

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